What is Predicted NES?

Predicted NES is computed via the formula NES = (M + T + C + R + V) minus (IC + TD + AC + RR + OD). Each of the 10 components is scored 0 to 20 against a tiered data ladder. Growth Energy components: Momentum, Trust, Cohort Renewal, Recovery Capacity, Validation. Entropy Load components: Identity Confusion, Trust Deficit, Audience Concentration, Regulatory Risk, Operational Dependency. Public signals only.

The Convergence Gap is computed as Predicted NES minus Measured NES (where Measured NES comes from direct customer-cohort surveys via the v4.0 instrument). Convergence holds when |Gap| ≤ 10. The Monitor zone (10 < |Gap| ≤ 15) flags modest divergence worth tracking. Positive divergence (Gap > +15) means public signals overstate the delivered customer experience; this is the operational risk signal. Negative divergence (Gap < −15) means the brand is stronger than its public footprint suggests.

Brand Predicted NES Zone Scored Category Case Study
Athletic Brewing
Non-Alcoholic Beer · USA
+36 ±5 Healthy Constrained May 2026 Beverages Pending
Graza
Food & Beverage · USA
+31 ±5 Healthy Constrained May 2026 Food & Bev Pending
Thorne
Supplements · USA
+31 ±8 Healthy Constrained May 2026 Supplements Pending
AlayaCare
Healthcare SaaS · Canada
+29 ±8 Healthy Constrained May 2026 B2B SaaS Pending
Olipop
Beverages · USA
+28 ±5 Healthy Constrained May 2026 Beverages Published
Huel
DTC Nutrition · UK
+24 ±7 Healthy Constrained May 2026 DTC Nutrition Pending
Eyewa
DTC Eyewear · UAE
+22 ±10 Healthy Constrained May 2026 DTC Eyewear Pending
Walmart
Retail · USA
+16 ±5 Fragile Equilibrium May 2026 Retail Published
ClickUp
Productivity SaaS · USA
+15 ±8 Fragile Equilibrium May 2026 B2B SaaS Pending
Wellbeing Nutrition
Supplements · India
+13 ±10 Fragile Equilibrium May 2026 Supplements Pending
Alleanza Healthcare
Healthcare Provider · UAE / USA
+3 ±12 Fragile Equilibrium May 2026 Healthcare Pending
Kapiva
Supplements · India
+3 ±10 Fragile Equilibrium May 2026 Supplements Pending
HealthKart
Health Platform · India
-5 ±10 Structural Decay May 2026 Health Platform Pending

All values are Predicted NES, computed via the 10-component formula in Appendix A of the working paper. The ± band reflects analyst-spread on public-signal scoring. US and UK brands carry ±5 to ±8 confidence; India and MENA brands carry ±10 to ±12 because Tier-3 and Tier-4 data substitution is more frequent. See the methodology section below for the formula and component definitions.  ·  NES framework explained →

The 10-component formula.

Paper-Method Formula (Appendix A)
Predicted NES = (M + T + C + R + V) − (IC + TD + AC + RR + OD)

Each of the 10 components is scored 0 to 20 against a tiered data ladder. Growth Energy components add to the score; Entropy Load components subtract. Range is bounded -100 to +100 by construction. Empirically observed range across the brands above: -5 to +36.

Growth Energy (GE)  ·  +0 to +100

M
Momentum Revenue growth trajectory, market-share trajectory, earned-media velocity.
T
Trust Customer review density, rating consistency across channels, retention behavior.
C
Cohort Renewal Demographic cohort fit, cross-generational adoption, addressable-market depth.
R
Recovery Capacity Channel diversification, geographic and revenue-source diversification.
V
Validation Tier-1 press density, analyst recognition, industry awards, practitioner endorsement.

Entropy Load (EL)  ·  +0 to +100 (subtracts)

IC
Identity Confusion Five-axis screen for identity coherence, including identity-obsolescence sub-axis.
TD
Trust Deficit Negative-review density, mainstream press tone, observable trust-break events.
AC
Audience Concentration HHI-based concentration risk across customer segments and geographies.
RR
Regulatory Risk Active regulatory enforcement, revenue-weighted exposure, per-regulator coefficient.
OD
Operational Dependency Concentration risk on single platforms, suppliers, founders, or product lines.

The Data Tier Ladder

Each component is scored against the highest tier of data available. Lower tiers carry wider analyst-spread.

T1 Primary first-party data (financial filings, internal cohort data, audited customer surveys).
T2 Direct customer review aggregations, mainstream press density, third-party rating density.
T3 Public-signal inference from secondary sources, industry reports, founder interviews.
T4 Analyst-applied default in the absence of higher-tier sources.

The framework acknowledges Predicted NES is exposed to subjectivity in public-signal interpretation. Different analysts applying the same toolkit to the same brand may produce scores that differ within a noticeable range. The ± band on every score above reflects this analyst-spread, narrowed where Tier 1 or Tier 2 data is available and widened where Tier 3 or Tier 4 fallbacks dominate.

For the gold-standard reading, the framework offers a Measured tier: a direct customer-cohort survey deployed via the v4.0 NES instrument. Measured NES is a paid engagement; the per-brand convergence gap (Predicted minus Measured) is the central diagnostic finding it surfaces.

Four zones. One direction.

NES zones map the relationship between brand consistency and growth dynamics. Higher scores indicate lower entropy load, more consistent customer experience, and stronger compounding of brand equity over time.

Strong Compounding +50 to +100 Experience is highly consistent. Brand equity and growth efficiency reinforce each other. LTV/CAC ratios are structurally supported by the experience layer.
Healthy Constrained +20 to +50 Consistency is solid but entropy load is limiting growth potential. Most scaling brands operate here. The gap between current and compounding is the diagnostic opportunity.
Fragile Equilibrium 0 to +20 Positive but precarious. A single execution failure (a new channel, a rapid SKU expansion, a mis-hire) can shift the brand into structural decay. Positive Divergence risk is highest here.
Structural Decay Below 0 Inconsistency is the dominant signal. Entropy is actively compounding against the brand. Churn, CAC inflation, and pricing power loss follow in sequence.

Public signals only.

Is your brand on this index?

If you've found your brand here and want the full diagnostic, or want to commission a Measured NES engagement to close the Convergence Gap, reach out directly. Every engagement begins with a free diagnostic conversation.